Trainer expects brighter days ahead for Mine That Bird

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/05/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eight months away from racing competition proved too much for 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to overcome in his first start of 2010. The four-year-old gelding finished a disappointing eighth in Sunday's Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.

"His first start back wasn't a successful one," noted trainer D. Wayne Lukas, "but I thought he would handle the turf a lot better than what he did. He didn't handle it that well."

Lukas, who took over as Mine That Bird's trainer from Chip Woolley, was forced to start the gelding in the turf stakes after an allowance race at Churchill failed to fill. The one-mile July 4th stakes was won by Tizdejavu in pacesetting style.

Lukas had been extremely pleased with Mine That Bird's workouts leading to the gelding's first race since November's ninth-place result in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park behind Zenyatta.

"He was training too forwardly to have him that far back," Lukas said, "but he finished up and got a little more comfortable the last three-eighths. I think it put us in a position to do something better."

Mine That Bird, with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle, was racing last for much of the race. He put on a small rally coming off the final turn to get up for eighth in the 14 horse field.

"He was struggling so much," Borel commented. "He kept moving back and forth, back and forth, switching leads. We will see a different horse after this, a totally different horse. He came back real good, jogging good. He was perfect, the horse is doing good. I'm telling you, get him on the dirt and you'll see a different horse."

Mine That Bird has not won since his surprise victory in last year's Run for the Roses as a 50-1 longhsot. His best race since the win was two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes when he rallied to get within a length of Rachel Alexandra.

Lukas has been saying all along that the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on Saturday, August 7 is the immediate goal for the four-year-old.

"I'm not discouraged that I can get him where I want him," Lukas said on Sunday. "I don't think we are going to the Arlington Million. The Whitney is our goal. If we could have gotten that allowance race to go, I think it would have been a different story. I didn't want to ship and we took a shot. It is what it is. I feel very comfortable in the mornings with what I see and we'll show up in the Whitney."

The expected favorite in the Whitney is leading four-year-old colt Quality Road. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Quality Road is perfect in three starts this year, coming out on top in the Hal's Hope Stakes, Donn Handicap and the Met Mile.

Mine That Bird needs a sharp upgrade if his connections expect to capture the Whitney. As a gelding, the only way for him to make money in the future is to race... and win.

Wsuperbowl Horseracing Betting News


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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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Super Bowl XLIII Betting - Super Bowl 2009

Super Bowl 2009, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.

MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.

Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.

Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.

After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.

Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.

Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.

If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.

Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.

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