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06/08/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All three of NASCAR's national touring series are in action this weekend, with the Sprint Cup and Camping World Truck Series at Michigan International Speedway and the Nationwide Series at Kentucky Speedway. Formula One returns to North America for the first time in two years with the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 - Michigan Int'l Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
After a wild finish in last Sunday's race at Pocono, don't be surprised if the madness carries over to Michigan this weekend.
Denny Hamlin held off Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch, who is Hamlin's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, after two late-race restarts to claim his fourth Pocono win.
Pocono concluded in dramatic fashion, with Kevin Harvick bumping Joey Logano out of the way for a top-five position with less than two laps to go. Then a nine-car pileup occurred on the last lap of the green-white checkered finish when Kasey Kahne was shoved down the track and into the grass by his Richard Petty Motorsports teammate A.J. Allmendinger. Kahne slammed hard into the wall and spun around on the track before taking out Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle and several others.
While Hamlin celebrated his series-high fourth win of the season, Logano parked his car next to Harvick's ride on pit road, as the two engaged in a shouting match.
Indeed, it was a wild day at Pocono.
Now it's on to Michigan, where Hamlin hopes his winning momentum will continue. Prior to his first win of the season in March at Martinsville, Hamlin sat 19th in points. Since then, he has climbed up to third in the standings (-136).
"I feel like we're one of four or five guys that really are legitimate, week in, week out, up-front guys," Hamlin said. "That's a good feeling right now. But it's very tough to stay on top of any sport for an entire year. Our sport is a roller coaster. It goes up and down. It has waves. Your performance always comes in waves."
Hamlin has yet to win at Michigan, but he did record his best finish there one year ago with a third-place run.
Harvick enters Michigan with just a 19-point lead over Busch.
Mark Martin is the defending race winner at Michigan. Last year, Martin won in a thrilling battle of fuel mileage. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson held the lead before running out of gas just short of crossing the line to start the final lap. Biffle then inherited the top position, but he too ran out of fuel on the backstretch. That allowed Martin to take over the lead and then claim his fourth of five victories during the 2009 season.
"We won at the first Michigan race last year because our car was so fast that I could slow down and still stay ahead of people," Martin said. "Therefore, I was able to save enough gas to make it all the way."
Martin leads all full-time, active drivers with five victories at Michigan.
Currently 11th in points, Martin has been winless so far this season.
Last August, Brian Vickers prevailed in another fuel-mileage battle at Michigan. Vickers, the pole sitter, grabbed the lead with two laps to go when Johnson ran out of fuel. He then held off Gordon, who also gambled on fuel, by 1.4 seconds for his second career Cup victory. His first win came in October 2006 at Talladega.
Vickers is expected to be out of his Red Bull Racing Toyota for the remainder of the season, due to his treatment for blood clots. Casey Mears has been driving the car since last month at Dover.
Up until last year, Roush Fenway Racing had been dominant at Michigan, winning a Cup race there for seven consecutive years. Team owner Jack Roush, who resides 60 miles away from the two-mile track in Northville, MI, recorded his 11th victory there in August 2008 when Carl Edwards held off Kyle Busch in a two-lap overtime finish. Roush moved into a tie with the Wood Brothers for most car owner wins at the track.
"All of our wins at [Michigan] have been special," Roush said. "It's in front of a home crowd, it's in front of my Roush industries affiliates and it's in front of Ford Motor Company and Chrysler and General Motors. Detroit is still the Motor City in spite of rumors otherwise, but it's good to race in front of the home crowd where all of our friends and the people that we'd like to have support are there paying attention."
Ford will use its new engine package -- FR9 -- in all of the Roush and Petty cars, as well as the sole entry for the Wood Brothers, this weekend at Michigan.
The automobile manufacturer debuted its FR9 in last year's fall race at Talladega, where Jamie McMurray won in a Roush Ford. McMurray has since moved over to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. Ford has not won a Sprint Cup points race since McMurray's victory at Talladega.
Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400.
Camping World Truck Series
VFW 200 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
Todd Bodine padded his points lead to 65 over Aric Almirola after winning last Friday's race at Texas. Bodine led 97 of 167 laps, but had to hold off Johnny Sauter and Ron Hornaday Jr. in a two-lap overtime finish to capture his record-extending sixth victory there. He also ended a 24-race winless streak in the Camping World Truck Series.
"To come out of [Texas] with a win for the stretch, it's awesome, but it's just one win, it's one track and we have to go to Michigan [this] week and beat them up there," Bodine said.
Michigan is the final race before the series' last big break of the season. The next event after Michigan is on July 11 at Iowa. The series will then begin a 10-week stretch.
There will be a guaranteed new race winner at Michigan. No previous winners are on the entry list. Former series champions Ron Hornaday Jr., Mike Skinner and Bodine, along with Kyle Busch, who returns to trucks after taking a week off, have never driven into victory lane at Michigan. All four of those drivers have combined for 109 victories in the series.
A Ford has won five of the previous 10 truck races at Michigan, but the automobile manufacturer has been winless so far this season. The last victory for Ford actually came one year ago at Michigan.
Jack Roush leads all team owners with five victories at Michigan, including wins in the last three races with drivers Travis Kvapil, Erik Darnell and Colin Braun. Roush has no truck entries so far this year.
Michigan has featured quick races and close finishes since the series started competing there in 1999.
Brendan Gaughan's 2003 win at Michigan remains the fastest truck event ever run. Gaughan averaged 154.044 m.p.h. and cruised to an 11.477 margin of victory in a race that wrapped up in one hour, 17 minutes and 54 seconds.
Two years ago, Darnell won there in thrilling fashion. He nipped Johnny Benson by 0.005 seconds, making it the second closest finish in series history.
Thirty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the VFW 200.
Nationwide Series
Meijer 300 - Kentucky Speedway - Sparta, KY
This weekend's race at Kentucky is the second in a stretch of three consecutive stand-alone events for the Nationwide Series. After last week's Nashville-Pocono combo, three of the four double-duty drivers were tops at Nashville. Brad Keselowski won there, while Carl Edwards finished second and Paul Menard took third. Michael McDowell crashed midway through the race and ended up finishing 30th.
With the win, Keselowski increased his lead to 196 points over Kyle Busch, who remained second in the standings, despite not competing at Nashville. Busch, the 2009 Nationwide champion, only raced at Pocono in order to focus on his Sprint Cup Series efforts this season.
Brad Coleman drove Busch's No.18 Toyota to a sixth-place finish at Nashville. Coleman also will drive the car at Kentucky.
Busch's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Joey Logano, will join the group of drivers doing the Kentucky-Michigan duo.
Kentucky/Michigan is the first time this season that Logano will attempt double duty at two different tracks. He will practice and qualify for the 400- mile Sprint Cup race at Michigan on Friday afternoon before traveling to Kentucky to practice for the Nationwide event there later in the evening. Logano will then return to Michigan that night to be able to participate in Saturday morning's final Cup practice. He will fly back to Kentucky in time to qualify for the 300-mile Nationwide race. However, JGR development driver Matt DiBenedetto will be on standby.
Logano has started on the pole and won the last two Nationwide races at Kentucky. In 2008, he became the youngest race winner in the series at age 18 years and 21 days.
"I'm pumped to head back to Kentucky Speedway," Logano said. "That place holds a lot of special memories for me. It's the track that I got my first Nationwide Series win, and it's the track that I first tested a Sprint Cup car. It's my most successful track. There are not a lot of drivers out there that can go to a track more than once and say that they are batting 1.000."
Logano is the only repeat winner there.
Kentucky also will be the second of four "Dash 4 Cash" races on the 2010 Nationwide schedule. Nationwide Insurance sponsors the bonus program, with eligible drivers having an opportunity to collect an extra $25,000 if they win. Drivers who qualify include: full-time and part-time/limited schedule series-only regulars, as well as double-duty drivers who competed in every series event.
Kevin Harvick won the first "Dash 4 Cash" event this season in April at Nashville. Harvick, who was a full-time Nationwide driver at the time, collected the money award. He is not competing at Kentucky, which is probably a good thing for Logano.
Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Meijer 300.
FORMULA ONE
Canadian Grand Prix - Circuit Gilles Villeneuve - Montreal, Canada
After a one-year hiatus, Formula One returns to North America for the Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal's Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The 4.361-kilometer (2.709-mile), 14-turn road course is regarded as one of the most unusual tracks on the F1 calendar.
The long straightaways on the Montreal circuit make for high-speed racing, but its low-speed chicanes create wear and tear on the braking system.
F1 last competed in Montreal in 2008, but the Canadian GP was dropped from last year's calendar after F1's governing body, the International Automobile Federation (FIA), and race organizers could not reach an agreement. The event was reinstated for the 2010 schedule.
Robert Kubica, the first Polish driver to compete in F1, recorded his maiden grand prix win in the Canadian GP two years ago. Kubica drove for BMW Sauber at the time. He is now with Renault, as he sits sixth in the world championship standings with 67 points.
"I'm glad that after a year's break we are returning to Montreal," Kubica said. "I enjoy driving there, and I like the characteristics of the track. It's kind of a mix between a high and low-speed track because there are big braking zones and some long straights where top speed is important. We haven't been to a track with these characteristics yet, so we will have to wait and see how all the teams perform there."
Kubica finished second in the March 28 Australian Grand Prix and third in the May 16 Monaco Grand Prix.
Last week, Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button gave McLaren a 1-2 finish in Sunday's Turkish Grand Prix, while Red Bull teammates Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel lost an opportunity to win the race after they crashed 18 laps from the finish.
Webber, the pole sitter, held the lead after 40 laps were completed, but Vettel chased him down, as the two ran side-by-side for the top position. When Vettel tried to overtake Webber, the two collided and spun around. That allowed Hamilton to claim the lead and Button to move into second for good.
Heading to Montreal, Webber holds the championship lead with 93 points accumulated, compared to 88 points for Button, the defending F1 champion, and 84 for Hamilton, the 2008 titleholder.
Hamilton's first F1 win came in the Canadian GP during his sensational rookie season in 2007.
"I won my first Grand Prix in Montreal, and 2007 seems like such a long time ago, but I still have some absolutely fantastic memories of that weekend -- the pole position, the crazy number of safety cars, the uncertainty in the final laps, and then, at last, crossing the line, which just was a massive feeling of relief and amazement at the same time," Hamilton said.
Hamilton won the United States Grand Prix one week later at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. F1 has not competed in the U.S. since the'07 Indy race, but the racing circuit will return to America in 2012, with the USGP being held in Austin, TX.
<< National League All-Star Fan Voting
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 1,549,9412. Ryan Howard, Phillies, 761,8523. Prince Fielder, Brewers, 416,3604. Joey Votto, Reds, 373,5955. Troy Glaus, Braves, 342,344Second Base1. Chase Utley, Phillies, 1,573,2482. Martin Prado, Braves, 595,2503. Dan
<< Fans flock to Strasburg's major league debut
WASHINGTON (AP) -The crowd outside Nationals Park buzzed anxiously. Some were worried about getting to their seats early. Some were nervous about getting seats at all. All of them were on edge about Stephen Strasburg's major league debut Tuesday nig
<< Delaware race eliminated from Rachel's consideration
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra
has not been entered in Saturday's $150,000 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park,
leaving three other races in the mix for her start this weekend.
The Obeah, a 1 1
<< U.S. team downplays 1950 parallels as England game looms
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It was 1950 when the United States men's soccer team last
played England in a FIFA World Cup match.
That year, the U.S. team pulled off one of the most important victories in its
lackluster World Cup history by upsetting
Will cooler heads prevail at Michigan? >>
Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June
13. Race: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Site: Michigan International
Speedway. Track: two-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles:
400. 2009 winne
Bodine takes winning momentum into Michigan >>
Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date:
Saturday, June 12. Race: VFW 200. Site: Michigan International Speedway.
Track: two-mile oval. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 100. Miles: 200. 2009
winner: Colin Braun
Logano looking to go 3-for-3 at Kentucky >>
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, June
12. Race: Meijer 300. Site: Kentucky Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start
time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 300. 2009 winner: Joey Logano.
Television: ESPN. Ra
Rangers ink Byers to extension >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers agreed to terms with
forward Dane Byers on a contract extension.
The 24-year-old Byers, a second-round draft pick of the Rangers in 2004,
played in five games with the team l
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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