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07/13/2010 - Prague, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded Czech favorite Lucie Safarova and No. 2 seed Alexandra Dulgheru were among Tuesday's first-round winners at the $220,000 Prague Open tennis event.
Safarova handled Latvia's Anastasija Sevastova 6-4, 7-5, while the Romanian Dulgheru held off Italian veteran Tathiana Garbin 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 on the red clay at Stvanice.
Fifth-seeded Spaniard Anabel Medina Garrigues whipped Czech wild card Kristyna Pliskova 6-1, 6-3, while last week's Budapest titlist, Agnes Szavay, stayed hot with a 6-4, 6-3 beating of Romanian qualifier Liana Ungur, and eighth- seeded Czech Barbora Zahlavova Strycova stifled compatriot Andrea Hlavackova 6-2, 6-4. The Hungarian Szavay is seeded seventh this week.
Unseeded Swiss veteran Patty Schnyder, who succumbed to Szavay in the Budapest finale for a second straight year this past weekend, moved on here Tuesday with a 6-7 (2-7), 6-4, 6-1 come-from-behind victory over Kazakhstan's Zarina Diyas.
A Day-2 upset occurred when Romanian Monica Niculescu dismissed third-seeded Swiss Timea Bacsinszky 6-3, 7-5.
Fourth-seeded Czech favorite Klara Zakopalova pulled out of the draw and was replaced by Austrian lucky-loser Tamira Paszek, who fell to France's Alize Cornet 7-6 (7-4), 6-7 (3-7), 6-4, while long-time Czech favorite Iveta Benesova moved on with a 6-4, 6-7 (4-7), 6-2 decision against Bosnian qualifier Mervana Jugic-Salkic.
Other opening-round wins came for Czechs Lucie Hradecka and lucky-loser Eva Hrdinova, Colombian qualifier Catalina Castano, and qualifier Ksenia Pervak, who bested former top-10 fellow Russian Anna Chakvetadze 6-2, 6-3.
<< Trucks join Nationwide at Gateway
Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date:
Friday, July 16. Race: CampingWorld.com 200. Site: Gateway International
Raceway. Track: 1.25-mile oval. Start time: 9:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 162. Miles:
200. 2009 winner: Mi
<< Nationwide Series begins second-half of season at Gateway
Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, July
17. Race: Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250. Site: Gateway International
Raceway. Track: 1.25-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles:
250. 2009 wi
<< Columbus hosts struggling K.C. in mid-week MLS fixture
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew return home when they host
the Kansas City Wizards in Major League Soccer action at Crew Stadium on
Wednesday.
The Eastern Conference leading Crew (8-2-4) are coming off a scoreless d
<< Agent: Ilgauskas to sign with Miami Heat
MIAMI (AP) -Zydrunas Ilgauskas is following LeBron James to the Miami Heat.Agent Herb Rudoy says the veteran center expects to sign a two-year contract later this week. The terms have not been finalized, but Rudoy says ``we've agreed to agree.''Rudo
Dundee signs Swanson to extension >>
Dundee, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dundee United midfielder Danny Swanson
has penned a contract extension to keep him at Tannadice until the summer of
2012.
The 23-year-old has scored seven times in 87 appearances for the Terrors t
Gosling set to join promoted Newcastle >>
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle United appears to have won the
race to sign Dan Gosling, who left Everton last week in controversial
circumstances.
However, United boss Chris Hughton will not be able to unveil the $
Ilgauskas follows LeBron to Miami >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Center Zydrunas Ilgauskas has apparently
decided to join former Cavaliers teammate LeBron James in Miami.
The Plain Dealer of Cleveland reported Tuesday afternoon that Ilgauskas will
sign with the Hea
Tottenham's Bentley suffers injury setback >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Midfielder David Bentley will miss
Tottenham Hotspur's preseason tour to the United States with ankle ligament
damage.
Bentley limped out of Saturday's friendly against Bournemouth after land
The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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